Posted by: Barry Bickmore | August 7, 2010

The Monckton Files: Cracking the Crackpot Graphs

Over on RealClimate, they just posted my commentary on Monckton’s graphs of atmospheric CO2 and global mean temperature.  The bottom line is that he made up false data and labeled it “IPCC Predictions” to discredit the IPCC.  (“Look, their predictions are way off!!!”)

So far, I have personally checked into Monckton’s claims about being a member of the House of Lords, the IPCC’s CO2 and temperature “predictions”,  solar variations as a climate driver, and long-term temperature history.  In every case, I have found that Monckton has severely misrepresented the truth.  If you have the slightest inclination to believe anything Lord Monckton says, start checking him out yourself!)  A good place to start looking at what others have found is Lord Monckton’s Rap Sheet.


Responses

  1. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Lou Grinzo and Baerbel Winkler, Planet3.0. Planet3.0 said: The Monckton Files: Cracking the Crackpot Graphs http://bit.ly/acu3QG […]

  2. Barry,

    It’s all very simple, isn’t it? Assume that anything he says or writes is false unless you have very good reason to believe otherwise.

    • It never struck me how utterly true that is until I watched John Abraham’s presentation. Since then I’ve invested the time to dig into Monckton’s references on multiple issues, and it’s always about the same story.

  3. Barry,

    in your RC comment you indicated in a figure caption that you don’t know the base period of Monckton’s temperature data. I have waded through his “Monthly CO2 report”s and dug up the info what his “SPPI global temperature index” is and how much its definition (I use that word loosely) has changed over just the last 1.5 years. I left a comment to that effect on RC, but wanted to make sure the info reaches you.

    http://bluegrue.wordpress.com/2010/08/07/evolution-of-the-sppi-global-temperature-index/

    In short: It started out as a mean of HadCRUt3, NCDC, RSS, and UAH. He successively dropped NCDC (no reason given) and HadCRUt3 (claimed to be compromised because of climategate). For the time being UAH is dropped as well, because data was unavailable (or so he claims).

    While I don’t see any merit in averaging over anomalies with different base periods, the cherry on top of the cake is how the zero level of the “SPPI global temperature index” is determined. The index is shifted such that the minimum value in the present graph is zero. Yep, if you change the time period displayed, chances are that the index is shifted up or down.

    • Thanks! This is very useful. It has always struck me how stupid the concept of the SPPI Temperature Index is, in any case. Each data set comes with its own set of raw data, data crunching techniques, and so on. When you take a few and arbitrarily average them together, it just ends up removing the context.

  4. Me thinks, that for reasons of psychological warfare, we should emphasize other absurd claims made by the “Lord”. The issue of his having claimed to be a member of the House of Lords, while valid, seems to be getting old. Of more importance, it requires a certain amount of time that many Americans, with short attention spans, do not have.

    The easiest of the crackpot claims that “His Lordship” has made is, undoubtedly, that Snake Oil cure that “cures” several ailments. It only takes a few seconds and a single link to blast his credibility.

    In communicating with Media and anyone who may have an interest, we should provide the following link to the resume that appears on his political party’s website:

    http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/1675-christopher-a-man-of-many-talents

    Christopher: A man of many talents

    Friday, 4th June 2010

    UKIP’s new joint Deputy Leader, Christopher Monckton, 58, is a true polymath with a range of knowledge and interests extending across medicine, finance, journalism and science.

    [–SNIP–]

    2008-present: RESURREXI Pharmaceutical: Director responsible for invention and development of a broad-spectrum cure for infectious diseases. Patents have now been filed. Patients have been cured of various infectious diseases, including Graves’ Disease, multiple sclerosis, influenza, and herpes simplex VI. Our first HIV patient had his viral titre reduced by 38% in five days, with no side-effects. Tests continue.

    We should also use this information to embarrass politicians who are friendly to His Magisterium, particularly if he ever gets invited again to testify in front of Republican SFBs.

  5. Me thinks, that for reasons of psychological warfare, we should emphasize other absurd claims made by the “Lord”. The issue of his having claimed to be a member of the House of Lords, while valid, seems to be getting old. Of more importance, it requires a certain amount of time that many Americans, with short attention spans, do not have.

    The easiest of the crackpot claims that “His Lordship” has made is, undoubtedly, that Snake Oil cure that “cures” several ailments. It only takes a few seconds and a single link to blast his credibility.

    In communicating with Media and anyone who may have an interest, we should provide the following link to the resume that appears on his political party’s website:

    http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/1675-christopher-a-man-of-many-talents

    Christopher: A man of many talents

    Friday, 4th June 2010

    UKIP’s new joint Deputy Leader, Christopher Monckton, 58, is a true polymath with a range of knowledge and interests extending across medicine, finance, journalism and science.

    [–SNIP–]

    2008-present: RESURREXI Pharmaceutical: Director responsible for invention and development of a broad-spectrum cure for infectious diseases. Patents have now been filed. Patients have been cured of various infectious diseases, including Graves’ Disease, multiple sclerosis, influenza, and herpes simplex VI. Our first HIV patient had his viral titre reduced by 38% in five days, with no side-effects. Tests continue.
    **********************************
    We should also use this information to embarrass politicians who are friendly to His Magisterium, particularly if he ever gets invited again to testify in front of Republican SFBs.


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